Posts

Showing posts from November, 2013

Big Telecom Merger Wave Coming, Between 2014 and 2016, CSS Insights Predicts

By one estimate, there have been 161 merger or acquisition deals announced or completed in Europe, so far in 2013. And Deutsche Telekom CEO Rene Obermann says it is necessary for European telecom companies to get bigger, to compete globally.
A major wave of industry restructuring will happen between 2014 and 2016, CSS Insight predicts, with a merger of Orange (France Telecom) and Deutsche Telekom among the deals predicted to happen in 2015.
A precursor would be the sale of T-Mobile US to Dish Network, CSS Insight predicts.
Telecom mergers tend to happen in waves, so it is not to hard to predict that many mergers and acquisitions will happen over the next couple of years, completing a merger wave that was stalled, temporarily it now seems, by the global Great Recession of 2008.
As with past waves of mergers, industry shocks will provide the impetus for the merger wave. Typically, those shocks are economic, regulatory or technological. The issue, some might argue, is whether sufficient capi…

Telecom Malaysia Revenue Grows, Fixed Broadband Helps

It is commonplace these days to note that Internet access revenues are driving growth in developed market telecom markets, especially in the mobile realm, but also in the fixed network segment.
As it turns out, that sometimes also is the case in “developing” markets as well, especially those with high penetration of mobile voice.
Telekom Malaysia pre-tax profit increased 11.1 percent to RM264.9 million in the third quarter of 2013, up from RM238.5 million in the third quarter of 2012.
Revenue grew 9.9 percent year-on-year growth to RM2.6 billion from RM2.4 billion previously, on the back of higher revenue contribution from Internet and data services, with net profit at RM240.9 million in the current quarter.
Significantly, a sizable portion of the revenue increase came from fixed network high-speed Internet access services.
Group Chief Executive Officer Tan Sri Zamzamzairani Mohd Isa said Telecom Malaysia has reached fixed network broadband coverage to 1.462 million premises, covering 10…

U.K. Looks for 650 MHz More Wi-Fi and Mobile Spectrum

U.K. communications regulator Ofcom is investigating ways to free up up more mobile broadband and Wi-Fi spectrum over the next decade or two. Some think the effort could add up to 650 MHz of new Internet access spectrum.
Real Wireless thinks the spectrum effort could free up 300MHz of additional cellular spectrum, and 350 MHz for Wi-Fi. Some of that spectrum should be commercially available by 2020.
If so, Ofcom will make available perhaps seven times as much spectrum as was awarded as part of the recent Long Term Evolution 4G auctions, with initial thinking that all of the additional spectrum could be made available over about a 20 year period.
Ofcom estimates that this new spectrum could boost mobile data capacity by more than 25 times between now and 2030, when used in conjunction with more advanced mobile networks,
Among the candidates for redeployment are the 2.3 and 3.4 GHz bands. Currently licensed for use by the Ministry of Defense, Ofcom is working to make that spectrum avail…

Above-Average Economic Growth in "Developing" Regions Will Drive Communications Growth as Well

Image
Generally speaking, consumption of communications products and services tracks gross domestic product. So it makes a great deal of difference, to people and service and product or app suppliers when GDP grows, especially in emerging for developing economies. 

Whatever concern might exist in equity or bond markets related to frontier, emerging or developing markets, growth seems to be in the offing for the next two years. After that, predictions are for steady growth at about a 3.5 percent annual rate. 



According to the Internatiional Monetary Fund, overall global growth might see roughly similar growth rates.



Euopean nations might grow about at slower rates through 2017. 



U.S. GDP growth forecasts (albeit adjusted for inflation) are constrained at less than two percent annual rates. Non-adjusted rates are about two percent annually.

To the extent that more-robust growth is beneficial for communications service providers, the generally sluggish growth rates will mean tougher growth prospect…

How Widely Could Small Cells Substitute for Fiber to Home?

Image
Just five years since its inception, does the strategic plan for the Australian National Broadband Network need significant revision, and if so, what sort of revision? Already, there is discussion about where to use fiber to the home and where to use fiber to the neighborhood.

But are other changes, relying more on mobile access, also needed? A position paper created by the McKell Institute, and funded by Vodafone Australia, raises even more questions.
The McKell Institute paper makes the case that the Australian National Broadband Network, intended to build a new fiber access infrastructure for Australia, also can be used to support enhanced mobile Internet access, using fiber backhaul to support new arrays of small cells, and should do so, according to study author Michael Gordon-Smith.
The position paper, funded by Vodafone Australia, argues that It argues that small mobile base stations, able to be placed on lampposts, and using the NBN for backhaul,  could significantly increase and…

NAB, DoD Agreement Clears Way for Auction of 50 MHz of Mobile Spectrum

The National Association of Broadcasters and the Pentagon have come to an agreement which will enable the Federal Communications Commission to free up the 1755 MHz 1780 MHz band as part of the planned auction of former TV broadcast spectrum, the most significant opportunity for U.S. mobile operators to increase their licensed spectrum capacity in many years.
The new agreement is part of an auction of spectrum in the 2155-to-2180 megahertz band, collectively referred to as AWS-3 (advanced wireless services), and will allow mobile service providers to bid on 50 MHz of spectrum.
The government technology and spectrum body, the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, sent a letter to the FCC detailing the deal, under which the DoD has agreed to move its operations out of the 1755 MHz to 1780 MHz band to the 2025 MHz to 2110 MHz band.
That move is enabled by a spectrum sharing pact with the broadcasters, which currently use the 2025 MHz to 2110 MHz band for remote news g…

Fixed Network Revenue Already Walks on Two Legs: Will Mobile Follow?

Image
One need not agree that the cable TV industry is imploding to agree that the industry’s revenue sources are changing in fundamental ways. 
In fact, the cable industry and the rival telephone industry seem to be converging on a similar revenue foundation, at least in the fixed networks business, in the consumer segment.

Consider Google Fiber, which offers two services, namely Internet access and video entertainment. And look at total subscribers in the U.S. video and fixed network business.
Already, the number of high-speed Internet access customers is closing on parity with the number of people buying video subscription services, in the U.S. fixed networks business.
It will take some time for the mobile business to reach the same revenue source pattern we are seeing in the fixed networks business in developed markets. The contribution of voice services to total EMEA service revenue, for example,  will decline from 47 percent to 39 percent through 2017, according to Analysys Mason.


Like…

Tablets Top Long Forrm Viewing on Connected Devices

Image
It once was the accepted wisdom in the television industry that people really would not want to watch video on small screens. For the most part, most video still gets watched on PCs and TVs, rather than tablets and smart phones.
But the amount of video consumed on small screens keeps growing. One indication of changing preferences is the amount of long-form video viewed on mobile phones and tablets, compared to PCs and connected TVs.

Global Telecom Revenue Will Grow 2.7% Annually, Through 2017

Worldwide telecom revenue will grow at a 2.7 percent compound annual growth rate between 2012 and 2017, according to Analysys Mason, representing movement from US$1.9 trillion in 2012 to US$2.1 trillion in 2017.

In developed markets, growth will come from mobile non-messaging data services and new services, since mobile voice and mobile messaging services will become commoditized.

In emerging markets, service providers will grow by adding significant numbers of new customers, Analysys Mason argues.
Total telecom revenue in the Europe, Middle East and Africa  region is forecast to grow at a 1.2 percent CAGR from 2012 to 2017, driven largely by revenue growth in the Middle East and Africa.

The contribution of voice services to total EMEA service revenue will decline from 47 percent to 39 percent through 2017. Non-mobile video services will see a 5.8 percent CAGR, while region capital investment grows at a 0.5 percent CAGR.

A disproportionate share of global revenue growth will be driven by …

Carrier Voice and Messaging: Should Service Providers Harvest or Invest?

Image
What strategy should fixed line telcos and mobile service providers take towards their legacy voice and messaging revenues? Should they invest more and add features to revamp the products, or essentially harvest them?
In fact, some might say the problem is stark: can anything be done to arrest the decline of voice and messaging revenues?
The question is far from academic, and far from new.
The same questions could have been asked about long distance revenues in the decades following 1984, in the U.S. market, when a long and persistent decline in voice revenue began.
One might argue that the same fundamental question was relevant: what can or should be done to enrich and remake long distance service to reverse the revenue decline? Can “long distance” be recreated to produce new products?
In many ways, the problem was even simpler than faced by service providers today. There were no convenient or usable alternative communication modes. There was no way to substitute email or instant messa…