Thursday, June 23, 2011

Google Wallet Will be Ported to iPhones

If iPhones get near field communications, Google will port its Google Wallet to iOS, says Eric Schmidt, Google executive chairman. Google Wallet now is a service that runs on Androids, but there is no reason in principle, or even strategically, for Google to limit the reach of its Google Wallet service based on operating system or even handset dimensions.

Apple hasn't yet clarified what it believes its own role will be in the ecosystem, but it does not appear that Apple and Google are targeting the same spots within the business. Google is going to chase the local advertising and promotion opportunity. Apple might decide to leverage iTunes in some way. http://www.mobilemarketingandtechnology.com/2011/toppost/google-mobile-wallet-who-ultimately-controls-the-credentials-process/

The only regularly available NFC-aware smart phones in the US are the Nexus S and Nexus S 4G, but a number of companies have indicated they are moving forward with the feature.

All of RIM's upcoming phones, like the BlackBerry Bold 9900, will have it built-in. Nokia's N9 and possibly its Windows Phone devices will have the short-range wireless. LG and Sony Ericsson have pledged their own support using Android. Apple has been rumored signing on but has seen contradictory rumors that it might wait until 2012.

But one the big issues,, namely the question of which entity controls loading of credentials into the phones, remains unsettled. Both carriers and handset manufacturers have their own reasons for wanting to control the process. See

Several of us on a panel were asked recently how long it would take for NFC to be adopted. It's a harder question that you would think, in part because you have to decide what "adopted" means. It is one thing to ask how long it will take for most phones to include NFC as a feature. It is another question to ask how long before 20 percent of devices in use have NFC.

My own take at the moment is that adoption is going to take longer than people think. Over the next five years, for example, there will be slower progress than innovators need to scale their offers. At some point after that, possibly in another five years, an inflection point could be reached. Again, the issue is what dimension of NFC deployment we decide to focus on. Availability of the feature will arrive sooner than "ubiquitous and daily use" by consumers.

Even harder to predict is which firms might ulitmately lead the market, or key segments of the market, and why. I used the analogy of 1995 and Netscape to illustrate where we are in the developing business. In 1995, if you used Netscape, there were not a lot of things you could do. Most corporate sites consisted of simple "brochures online."

You couldn't really communicate with other people in real time, within the medium. You couldn't interrogate data bases. You couldn't buy anything, listen to music, watch movies or post photos. Sometimes you could not comment directly within the context of the site visits. You couldn't make or change a reservation.

But that's where we are today. It isn't possible to predict with certainty what will trigger the massive end user and retailer value that causes the capabilities to "go viral." It isn't possible to predict the future leaders for the same reasons. Remember that Netscape was eclipsed. And if you look at all the ways people now use browsers, it would have been hard to predict in 1995 what the level of usage might be, what the apps would be or who the leaders would be.

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