Saturday, December 16, 2006
In 2005, Forester Research estimates, just 2.6% of Western European broadband consumers used VoIP for almost all their fixed-line calls from home. But matters will change dramatically. Forrester Research expects three in four European telco network broadband subscribers to use VoIP within 10 years. But the average incumbent telco will not get more than €63.58 (a bit less than $7 a month) in net annual VoIP revenues per broadband user in year 10. That, plus a dramatic shrinkage in revenue-beating access lines, as indicated by Technology Futures Inc. forecasters, highlights the urgency and strategic importance of new revenue streams. There simply isn't going to be all that much consumer voice revenue to get.
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Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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